International visitors are forecast to spend US$116 billion more across the Middle East by 2030, a 57% increase from 2025, according to new tourism forecasts presented at Arabian Travel Market (ATM) 2026 in Dubai.
The forecast points to continued growth in tourism across the region despite geopolitical and economic uncertainty in 2026. The report also expects international travel across the wider Middle East, North Africa and South Asia (MENASA) region to rebound strongly in 2027, with growth projected at 17%.
For travellers and tourism businesses, the figures point to a rapidly expanding regional travel market, with more visitors, longer stays and higher spending expected over the coming years.
The ATM Travel Trends Report 2026, produced by Arabian Travel Market in association with Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, forecasts that international travel across MENASA will reach 316 million arrivals and 2.3 billion visitor nights by 2030.
International visitor spending is projected to reach US$408 billion, representing a 55% increase from 2025.
The report was presented by Dave Goodger, Managing Director EMEA at Tourism Economics, during a session at ATM 2026 at Dubai World Trade Centre.
Why is Middle East tourism expected to grow?
The region is already growing faster than the global travel market.
In 2025, total travel volumes across MENASA were almost 50% above 2019 levels, compared with global growth of 16% over the same period. The region also accounted for more than half of the worldwide increase in international travel between 2019 and 2025, according to the report.
Tourism Economics expects 2026 to be affected by geopolitical disruption, but forecasts a significant recovery in 2027.
Global international travel is projected to grow by 8% in 2027, while MENASA is forecast to grow by 17%.
The report says recovery from major travel disruptions has also become faster, falling from around 24 months in the early 2000s to approximately 10-12 months in recent years.
Goodger said: “We are indeed optimistic about growth. Over the next five years we see travel expanding on a structural basis rather than just a cyclical rebound. International travel has never mattered more, 2026 is building on a record 2025, and MENASA is outpacing the world.
“This year is disrupted by an uncertain economic and geopolitical backdrop, but consumers are treating travel as essential. People are prioritising experiences over things, and that, combined with favourable demographics, rising wealth and sustained investment in capacity, underpins our confidence in the region’s long-term momentum.”
How much could visitors spend in the Middle East by 2030?
According to the forecast, international visitor spending across MENASA is expected to rise from its 2025 level to US$408 billion by 2030.
That increase comes alongside projected growth in both arrivals and overnight stays:
| Measure | 2030 forecast | Increase from 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| International arrivals | 316 million | 36% |
| Visitor nights | 2.3 billion | 46% |
| Visitor spending | US$408 billion | 55% |
The report’s separate forecast for international visitor spending in the Middle East puts the increase between 2025 and 2030 at US$116 billion, or 57%.
AI is changing how travellers plan trips
The report also highlights the growing use of artificial intelligence across the region’s tourism industry.
Research cited by the report found that 91% of Middle East travel businesses are piloting or operating AI, while 85% report measurable cost savings.
Travellers are also increasingly turning to AI when planning trips. Prospective visitors interested in travelling to the Middle East were more than twice as likely to have used an AI chatbot for trip planning than travellers interested in other regions — 28% compared with 12%.
During the ATM panel, Agoda’s Vice President of Supply Tarik Fadil said AI could influence the travel journey from inspiration and booking through to post-booking support, while also stressing the importance of localisation.
What does this mean for Dubai and the region?
The forecasts presented at ATM point to continued investment and expansion in the region’s tourism capacity.
During the panel, Eddy Tannous, Chief Operating Officer at Rotana Hotel Management Corporation PJSC, pointed to the growth in Dubai’s hotel capacity as an indication of how the market has expanded. He said Dubai had around 45,000 hotel keys in 2008 and now has closer to 160,000-170,000.
He also highlighted growth potential elsewhere in the region, including Abu Dhabi.
Tannous said: “I find the growth discussion very interesting. In 2008, the market changed drastically. We went into a recession, and everyone was asking: Is this it? Have we reached maximum capacity? At the time, Dubai had around 45,000 keys; today it’s closer to 160–170,000 keys.
“We’re hearing a similar story now in Abu Dhabi, which is at around 55,000 keys: Are we at full capacity or not? Personally, I don’t like comparing ourselves to what we were five or ten years ago. I prefer to compare the Middle East to major cities around the world. Dubai has seen substantial growth over the last 10–20 years, but the region’s potential is still far bigger than we think.”
The forecasts were presented as part of ATM 2026, which is taking place at Dubai World Trade Centre until September 17.
